North Korea

North Korea has announced a second test of a nuclear weapon. If that announcement is factual, a fact that U.S. intelligence agencies can confirm or refute using technology developed during the Cold War to monitor the Soviet Union, then sanctions to prevent North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons have failed. Seeking new sanctions against North Korea, which the U.S. has announced as a foreign policy goal, seems pointless. (Choe Sang Hung, “North Korea Announces 2nd Test of Nuclear Device,” New York Times, May 25, 2009) North Korea also has had two successful missile tests in the past few days, suggesting progress in developing a delivery system for nuclear weapons. (Choe Sang-Hun, “In Defiance, North Korea Is Said to Test More Missiles,” New York Times, May 26, 2009) The horse has left the barn and attempting to shut the door is pointless. Pundits say the U.S. has few good policy responses available. (David E. Sanger, “Tested Early by North Korea, Obama Has Few Options,” New York Times, May 26, 2009)

Military action to destroy North Korea’s nuclear capability seems irresponsible. Outsiders know too little about North Korea to attempt to destroy all nuclear facilities and weapons with a high degree of confidence (notably, the amateurs have begun compiling such targeting information on the web using publicly available information). A preemptive strike that missed or was ill-timed might result in North Korea launching a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most importantly, the Just War tradition has always considered preemptive strikes immoral.

Instead, the international community and the United States need to focus on finding an approach that will bring North Korea into the global community and seek to assure adequate safeguards for its nuclear weapons. A lone wolf North Korea poses a threat to its near neighbors and to Alaska. A lone wolf North Korea desperate for foreign currency may find the temptation to sell a nuclear weapon to non-state terrorists from other parts of the world irresistible. A lone wolf North Korea may wrongly believe that it has little to lose by invading South Korea. North Koreans are God's children in spite of their government’s denial of that truth and in spite of other governments declaring the North Koreans pariahs. This challenging task defies easy resolution yet is obviously of critical importance.

The starting point for developing a new foreign policy with respect to North Korea should be asking, What does North Korea want to achieve? What causes North Korea to act in ways that the rest of the world perceives as belligerent? Western experts answering those questions emphasize that North Korea’s fears invasion by the United States and the North Korea’s leader, fearing death is near, wants a voice in choosing his successor. North Korea is also unable to feed its own people, creating a high potential for internal unrest. Constructive engagement with North Korea begins by addressing North Korea’s real agenda, nobody else’s.

The United States has no interest in invading North Korea. However, from a North Korean perspective, it is easy to understand why North Korea fears a U.S. invasion. In this decade, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, then Iraq, and has threatened military action against the “axis of evil” that includes Iran and North Korea. Continuing U.S. bellicosity toward both Iran and North Korea is unlikely to give either nation confidence that the U.S. will not invade. The U.S. has never invaded a nuclear armed nation and appears unlikely to do so. No wonder that bellicose actions intended to discourage nuclear weapons development consistently fail!