Central Asian instability

Warning signs are appearing that Islamicist radicals have moved north from Pakistan and Afghanistan into central Asian nations that have Muslim majorities and generally fragile governments. Those governments are responding by attempting to nip that problem in the bud. (Clifford J. Levy, “Central Asia Sounds Alarm on Islamic Radicalism,” New York Times, August 18, 2009)

The United States, however, should recognize the dynamics of that situation as a window of opportunity and concurrently more foreboding than simply an extension of the problems that Islamicist radicals pose in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Historically, oppressed Muslims have used Islam as their vehicle of choice for demanding change. As I have previously commented in this blog, that choice confronts the oppressor with a no-win dilemma. If the rulers retaliate against the protesters, this adds credibility to protestors’ painting their oppressive rulers as anti-Islamic or, even worse, as apostate Muslims. Alternatively, if the rulers fail to act against the protesters, the protesters gain strength and new recruits from the continuing injustices that originally birthed the protest movement.

Finally, the ruling elite can engage in self-reform. This diminishes their power, perhaps even ending their status as the ruling elite, significantly reducing the likelihood of the elite adopting this option. However, this is the only option that does not result in the protesters eventually coming to power. The United States should encourage the central Asian governments to adopt this option.

If unsuccessful in that effort, then the United States should support the reformers, preferably working quietly through indigenous organizations not identified with a radical version of Islam. Adopting this latterpolicy is consistent with the values that under girded and inspired the American Revolution and represents the only viable option for helping to create stable and healthy governments in those countries. In other words, the best way to stop terrorism is to prevent it from initially gaining traction among the disenfranchised and victims of injustice.