Saturday, December 22, 2012

Beware the ecclesial fiscal cliff

Many, perhaps most, Christian congregations in the United States are approaching an ecclesial fiscal cliff. Unlike the expiring tax cuts and growing deficits that define the federal fiscal cliff, declining memberships and rising costs define the ecclesial fiscal cliff.


For specifics, consider The Episcopal Church (TEC). From 2007 through 2011 (the last year for which data is available), the number of parishes declined from 7055 to 6736 (6.5%), the number of Episcopalians declined from 2.1 to 1.9 million (9.1%), and average Sunday attendance declined from 727,822 to 657,887 (9.6%). The 2011 mean average Sunday attendance was 97; median average Sunday attendance was 65 (half of all congregations were above 65 and half below); and 68% of our congregations reported an average Sunday attendance of fewer than 100.


If those numbers are insufficiently grim, consider attendance in the context of finances. The average pledge in 2011 was $2410. Optimistically assuming that a congregation’s number of pledging units equals its average Sunday attendance, then the average income for Episcopal congregations in 2011 was $233,770. (Surprisingly, that assumption is not too far off the mark in terms of total income per congregation. In 2010 (last available year), average income per TEC congregation was $244,719.) For an Episcopal congregation whose average Sunday attendance was 67 (the median for TEC, with half of our congregations being larger and half-smaller), income from 67 pledgers who gave the denominational average would be $161,470. (All data from the TEC research office’s website.)


What can $162,000 – or even $244,000 – in revenue support for an Episcopal congregation in 2012 or 2013? The diocesan asking is generally 10% or more of pledge income. A full-time priest can easily cost a congregation $100,000 in stipend, housing, pension, healthcare coverage, and any other benefits. Operating a building (utilities, insurance, cleaning, perhaps a mortgage) probably runs upward, and perhaps substantially upwards, of $30,000. Allowing for other items deemed essential (audits, music, religious education materials, etc.), an average sized congregation can quickly find itself in a position of having insufficient funds to operate in accordance with members’ expectations.


Few congregations are average. Congregations with large endowments, significant sources of revenue other than giving (e.g., income from parking rentals or a school), or an unusually large percentage of above-average generous givers often have ample income. These affluent congregations, which I’m guessing might constitute 10% but certainly no more than 20% of all congregations, are TEC’s equivalent of the nation’s wealthiest 2%.


A growing number of congregations, perhaps already a plurality within TEC, are in the opposite position: their revenue is insufficient to pay the diocesan asking, fund a full-time priest, and properly maintain their physical plant. Deferred maintenance on the physical plant is perhaps the most common means of covering a revenue shortfall. Other options include spending endowment funds’ principal, reneging on the diocesan asking, and eliminating perceived “essentials” (such as a paid musician, fresh religious education materials, etc.). Many congregations rely on several of these strategies.


Each year, the speed with which this ecclesial fiscal cliff approaches accelerates. Attendance declines, expenses increase, and options for covering financial shortfalls diminish. Episcopalians’ average age, perhaps somewhere between 50 and 60, which portends growing numbers of losses from death, seems likely to compound the speed with which the ecclesial fiscal cliff drams near because TEC membership gains widely lag losses due to death and other causes.


I do not intend this essay to be an Advent message of unrelenting gloom and impending doom. TEC has some thriving congregations that experience significant growth year after year. We live in a world full of hurting, hungry, empty people whose lives the Christian gospel and our ministries can transform.


Advent season is a season of expectant waiting and new beginnings. Persevering with business as usual is a dead end for TEC. Sadly, better management – a topic near and dear to my heart, as a visiting professor in a graduate school of business and public policy – is no panacea, not even a partial solution.


Correctly perceived, our ecclesial fiscal cliff can become a catalyst for a paradigm shift that, while preserving the gospel treasure, exchanges TEC’s anachronistic earthen vessels for timelier, post-modern vessels. Among our dated earthen vessels are:

(1) Expensive investments in underutilized (generally, used only a few hours per week) buildings that are costly to operate and often poorly located to take advantage of current demographic trends;

(2) Increasingly unaffordable and underutilized full-time clergy (though their days may be full, they spend disproportionately little time doing that for which they were ordained (teaching, preaching, administration of the sacraments) and ever more time doing what is properly the ministry of the laity (most administration and most pastoral care);

(3) Music that though beloved by the few (I number myself in this group), feels to a majority of today’s young adults like it belongs in another century (actually, much of it is two or more centuries old);

(4) Sixteenth century technology designed to empower congregants (i.e., printed materials including worship leaflets, the Book of Common Prayer, and hymnals) that now ironically places TEC firmly in the eighteenth century and seems unwelcoming to twenty-first century people accustomed to video and electronics;

(5) Theology framed in terms of Greek philosophy and first millennium debates that post-moderns neither understand nor appreciate.


Your enumeration and description of our dated earthen vessels probably varies from mine. That’s okay. In our increasingly multi-cultural world, no one set of earthen vessels will suit everyone. People who seek uniformity will probably be happier in a Church such as the Roman Catholic Church or a fundamentalist sect that emphasizes conformity.


Diversity of theological, liturgical, and organizational earthen vessels will proliferate in the coming decades. Some vessels will be tried and found wanting. Other vessels will serve well in a limited number of specific locations or contexts but not be adaptable for broader use. A few vessels may find wide use. Experimentation is the only heuristic for identifying the vessels that belong to each of those categories. This multiplicity of styles and patterns echoes the early church’s practice. It was not until Christianity became the Roman Empire’s official religion that a single set of earthen vessels emerged as the sanctioned norm. Creative experimentation will become one hallmark of good leadership.


Our historic Anglican ethos of inclusivity, pastoral concern, commitment to worship in the lingua franca, cultural sensitivity, theological diversity, and unity rooted in common prayer seems well suited for TEC to thrive in our post-modern twenty-first century world.


The promise of Advent – that God has not finished creating the world – offers hope and renewal for we who seek the transcendent mystery and wonder of God's presence in our lives, a presence that generations of Christians have celebrated annually in the feast of the Christ-child’s birth. TEC needs leaders – our current Presiding Bishop and her successor, diocesan bishops, parish clergy, wardens, and vestry members – who inspire this hope in their preaching, teaching and ministries, motivating and empowering us to replace tired, archaic vessels with fresh ones better suited to this century. In such a Church, the impending ecclesial fiscal cliff, instead of signaling doom, will have become a force for renewal of both the Church and God's people.


PMG said...

While many of your larger points are spot-on—and I always enjoy reading your perspectives—when it comes to the details of the earthen vessels, I feel as I must eternally troll Episcopal blogs to point out that many of these observations are decidedly rooted in a baby-boomer mindset.

I'm one of these "postmodern" millennials, and I have never heard anyone my age cry out for more video and electronics in church, nor to reform the hymnal with more of that rock n' roll stuff the kids like these days. And as for buildings, given that the last decade has seen an influx of population and energy into formerly declining cities, I think our infrastructure is actually perfectly positioned to capture that creative energy.

Anecdote is not data, but my own parish is thriving, with a large, multi-racial, sexuality-diverse number of 20-30-somethings. I think I can safely generalize that we're attracted to the parish precisely for its combination of extremely old-fashioned high church liturgy and extremely liberal politics, and its historic-but-living connection to the urban fabric of the city we all live in.

George Clifford said...

Thanks for the feedback. There are certainly thriving Episcopal parishes - but these are the exceptions, not the norm. One of the challenges we Episcopalians face is discovering how to preserve the best of our tradition while moving forward. Is an interim, step, for example to place an electronic book reader in the pews in lieu of prayer book, Bible, hymnals, supplemental liturgical resources, and bulletin? Paper is rapidly becoming anachronistic. I personally am not a fan of electronics, but can, so to speak, see the handwriting on the wall (a video image with roots in Daniel).

Ted said...

Interesting concepts of what is really happening with many of our age old ideas. I do agree the buildings are underutilized; the community mores need to be considered. New concepts need to be entertained to reflect the age, location, wealth and other demographic realities. At least you are able to discuss it.

Julie Daye said...

I agree that this is a very exciting time in the history of the church. And as someone who is the average age of Episcopalians these days, it is hard to see where the church is going. Although the church as we know it may be slowly disappearing, I have faith that God is leading the Church on the right path.

I'm not sure what our job as 50-somethings is...except to 'let go and let God', and pray that she tells each of us how to help in our little corner of influence and talent.

bob said...

"Theology framed in terms of Greek philosophy and first millennium debates that post-moderns neither understand nor appreciate."

---Nor do they believe it! That must be why the Bishop of Olympia has to *order* his clergy to say the Creed on Sunday? Every downturn in numbers you mention seems to me and most of the others I know who've left ECUSA due exactly to the fact that they stopped teaching the Christian faith. Period. If you fret about anything else you've missed it entirely. A Muslim woman (Ann Redding) can be and is an Episcopalian in good standing in Seattle. The Episcopalians worry about cliffs only when they're at the bottom looking up.