Donald Trump achieved an amazing, unpredicted upset to win election as
the next President of the United States. What does his victory portend for life
in the US, for the future of the US, and for the world?
First, the conciliatory, unifying themes that Trump, Clinton, and Obama
adopted in their post-election remarks are encouraging. Democracy entails
living with outcomes not of our own choosing and while far from perfect is the
best form of government known to humans. I personally wish that the energy
devoted to protesting Trump's victory had been expended in working for a
Clinton win. But to refuse to accept Trump as President of all US citizens and of
the whole nation invites more problems than it resolves. Insisting on the
dignity and right of all persons to equal respect and treatment represents a
more constructive agenda and one that is likely to resonate with Trump's family
if not the President-elect.
Second, Trump has provided few specifics about policies and programs
that he intends his administration to adopt. He has also repeatedly moved from
extreme positions toward more moderate positions, that is, he is a pragmatist
more than an ideologue. Some of this pragmatism will, I suspect, be evident in
differences between positions held by hard-right GOP House members, the more
divided Senate in which Democrats by filibustering can wield significant power,
and Trump's administration.
Trump's vagueness about his goals, his pragmatism, and his ability to
shift positions may have some positive aspects. Illustratively, a Trump
presidency may be the catalyst for returning to a stronger federalist system.
For example, instead of attempting to centralize education standards states may
have more latitude in adopting their own standards. One historic advantage of
federalism that has long appealed to me is that when uncertainty obscures
clarity about the best policies, practices, or programs allowing states to
experiment provides fifty "labs" for testing various approaches. Contrary
to single-issue politics and advocates, identifying best policies, practices, and
programs is often a lengthy, difficult endeavor.
Third, Trump's lack of foreign policy knowledge and experience, a
weakness that attracted repeated attention during the extended campaign, greatly
concerns me. Like Trump, I favor rarely using US military power abroad. US intentions
for its interventions are generally laudable. Unfortunately, often nobody,
including US decision makers, has sufficient knowledge to predict the
consequences of such interventions accurately. Sometimes an intervention ends in
disaster (Vietnam), achieves short-term goals yet fails to achieve long-term stability
(Afghanistan), or results in a less stable, less secure, less advantageous for
the US outcome (Iraq).
Trump is not the first US president in recent history to lack
significant foreign policy knowledge and experience. Hopefully, Trump will
surround himself with competent advisors and quickly come up to speed on
dealing with foreign policy.
Reviewing this post in a couple of years, I would not be surprised to
discover that my optimism was unwarranted. Divisions within the US are deep,
e.g., the chasm between the wealthiest 1% of the poorest 50%. Rapid change (though
much of it is for the good in my estimation) has challenged people to adapt to
a society with which they feel out of step. Globalization, economic shifts toward
services and content instead of things, and greater justice for all are irreversible
trends. Nevertheless, the rapid pace of change too often has been an excuse for
treating persons who have not adapted to the changes, for whatever reason, as
social misfits and inferiors, moves clearly incompatible with according all
persons equal dignity and respect. And continued US hegemony as the world's only
superpower is far from assured regardless of who is president or policies the
US implements.
However, at this moment when the US is poised on the cusp of a new
presidential administration, optimism is likely to produce results that are
more positive by seeking to make the best of a potentially very problematic
electoral outcome than is pessimism.
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