Predictions for 2019
In 2018, I did not make any predictions. I’m resuming making
predictions for 2019 for two reasons. First, people who do not learn from the
past are widely thought to be condemned to repeating the past, not only those
things they got right but also those things they got wrong. Reviewing
predictions made a year earlier offers at least a limited opportunity to learn
from the past.
Second, making predictions for the upcoming year orients my
thinking to the future. The past is fixed. The present is happening. The future,
however, is at least partially undetermined allowing individuals to exert some
measure of influence over what happens. This possibility of effecting the
future probably explains the popularity of New Year’s resolutions.
So, here in no particular order are my predictions for 2019:
·
US stock markets will fall
more than 20% from their 2018 highs. The drop will result from a weakening
global economy, trade wars caused by the US and other nations raising tariffs,
oversupply of oil, geo-political uncertainty, rising interest rates, and other
factors. Market returns, as measured by broad indices, will be near zero or
negative.
·
President Trump’s enjoyment
of chaos, erratic behavior, dishonesty, and narcissism will continue to
destabilize US and world politics. He will persevere in regarding previously
reliable allies as adversaries and former US adversaries as allies.
·
The loyalty of President
Trump’s base will erode and his base diminish in size. Increased economic
difficulties for Trump’s base stemming from his chaotic and ill-advised policies
will produce this disaffection. Illustratively, contrary to his campaign
promises, manufacturing jobs are not increasing, the effects of the tax cut were
short-lived and small, healthcare will become less accessible (e.g., for older
children and people with pre-existing conditions) and costlier, welfare will be
less available for the unemployed and under-employed, etc.
·
President Trump’s legal
problems will escalate. The US House of Representatives, controlled by
Democrats, will initiate more investigations and the Mueller’s investigation may
issue its final report. The possibility of impeachment will grow but probably
not occur during 2019.
·
Brexit will happen.
Predictions of chaos will exceed the confusion that actually occurs. The UK
will nevertheless hold general elections following the fall of the current Conservative
government.
·
The US will tighten border
security, especially with Mexico, but will not build a border wall along the
southern border.
·
Trump, a man of few bedrock
convictions, will find shifting toward the political center tempting as a means
to achieve legislative results. A shift to the center will better align Trump
with both houses of Congress.
·
Global warming will increase.
Pertinent measures include a higher average temperature for the year, more extreme
weather events, and sea level rise.
·
No major war will erupt. Military
tensions between China and its Pacific neighbors will increase. Minor wars will
continue on all continents except Antarctica and Australia.
·
The US opioid epidemic will
continue uninterrupted. Opioid related deaths will increase.
·
US unemployment will
gradually begin to increase as the decade long economic expansion slows and
then begins to contract.
·
There will not be any major
news stories regarding religion. The Roman Catholic Church, however, will
continue to deal with its clergy sex abuse scandal. The world of religion tends
to change very slowly, so this prediction is unsurprising.
What are your predictions for 2019?
Comments
I read your 2019 predictions and agree with what you said.
I will add: Tension will increase between Mainland China & Taiwan. Hong Kong will lose more of its freedom and be more controlled directly by China. 1 country 2 system policy will in fact gradually become 1 country 1 system for HKG.
Housing prices will not rise too much in the US.
Global housing markets will cool off a bit.
My sense is 2019 will be quite a challenging year in many fronts: political (both domestic & international), environmental, people to people, and within our Diocese.
We need to wake up as a species. And we desperately need to listen to God!