Tomorrow, Donald Trump will become President of the United States. The
day is significant for at least five reasons:
- The peaceful transition of power
according to the rule of law in the world's largest democracy is an
important sign that the rule of law still prevails, no small achievement
in a world in which democracies tend to have short lives and in which
large nation states tend to have authoritarian rather than democratic
governance. Protesters of Trump's inauguration in DC and elsewhere are
themselves evidence that freedom of assembly and speech as well as the
rule of law still prevail in the US.
- Trump's presidency will usher in an unprecedented
era of chaos, reflected in both his idiosyncratic, narcissistic Tweets and
his proclivity to disregard facts that contravene his opinions and
feelings.
- That chaos will sometimes become the
catalyst for change. For example, Trump's Tweets and other favored forms
of communication may replace communication filtered through professional reporters
and the media with direct, unfiltered communication to the public. Similarly,
President Trump will function as salesperson in chief rather than as head
of state, chief executive, and statesman. Trump's apparent preference for living
in Trump Tower in New York rather than in the White House indicates his
unwillingness to change his personal style and foci to meet the demands of
his new office. Other persons, by default and of necessity, will attempt
to fill those other roles.
- The US seems poised to make a hard turn
to the right, with Republicans having a majority in both houses of
Congress as well as occupying the White House. Conflict has already
surfaced between Congress and Trump, first over the desire of conservative
Republicans in the House of Representatives to gut the Office of
Government Ethics' powers and then over the length of any gap between repealing
and replacing the Affordable Care Act. More conflict is likely, especially
as the exigencies of the Presidency inexorably push Trump toward centrist
positions and policies. Consequently, US policies and programs will move toward
the right but probably not as sharply as many fear.
- Politics will become increasingly
personal. Trump perceives disagreement as an attack on him personally. He frequently
responds with ad hominem attacks on anyone who has the audacity to disagree
with him. The personalization of politics will further polarize politics,
eroding Trump's ability to obtain Congressional support for legislative,
budgetary, and other initiatives. Cooperation across party lines is
unlikely to occur for similar reasons.
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