Review of 2016 predictions
At the beginning of 2016, as I have for several years, I made a number
of predictions
about what would happen in the year ahead. In this post, I assess the
accuracy of those predictions. Predictions are in black; assessments are in red.
- National and international affairs
- Syrian President Assad will remain in
power, Iraq will move closer to fragmenting, the Islamic State will
consolidate its hold on parts of Syria and the current Iraq, and Israel
will not make peace with the Palestinians. The US will block the
Palestinian's bid for recognition as a state by the United Nations. In
short, 2016 will not see major changes in the Middle East. Assad remains in power; Iraq is closer to fragmenting; ISIS,
however, has lost rather than gained power. Israel still has not made
peace with the Palestinian's, although the US failed to block the latest
UN resolution calling for a Palestinian state. Overall, 2016 did not see
major changes in the Middle East.
- Trump will not win the Republican
Party's presidential nomination. Trump not only
won the nomination but also the election.
- After a divisive, polarizing campaign,
the US will elect Hillary Clinton its first female president. Clinton lost the election after a polarizing campaign.
- Republicans will retain control of the
US House of Representatives and Democrats will control the Senate. I was only half-right: the GOP controls both houses of
Congress.
- The Middle East will remain in turmoil:
Yemen's insurrection will continue; the Saudi regime will face more open
opposition; Assad will continue to cling, just barely, to power; Iraq
will move closer to fracturing, with the Kurds exercising increased
autonomy; Afghanistan will continue to destabilize; and Iran will remain
an international pariah. The US will send more troops to the Middle East.
Russia, the US, and other nations – divided by opposing aims – will not
implement cooperative policies or actions in the Middle East. All of these predictions were basically correct.
- China will struggle to maintain a rate
of economic growth sufficient to pacify its population and keep its
Communist overlords in power while concurrently flexing its economic,
military, and political muscles abroad. This
prediction was correct.
- Economics
- The price of oil will remain below $60 per
barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will
show signs of fraying as its member states experience increasing
financial difficulties linked to oil's persistently low price. Oil remained below $60 per barrel but OPEC has not shown
evidence of fraying.
- The US economy will continue to grow
slowly with stock prices ending the year up, unemployment down, and wages
finally showing some, albeit slow, growth. Interest rates will continue
to inch upwards. All of these predictions were
correct.
- Social and cultural
- Aging populations in the US and Japan
will be the catalysts for a gradual erosion of youth worship and increased
social appreciation and valuing of the elderly. This
prediction was too optimistic; not much change in the predicted direction
was apparent.
- Deniers of climate change will become
further marginalized, akin to people who claim that the earth is flat.
Unfortunately, increased demand for energy generated using carbon based
fuels in China, India, and Africa will outweigh the benefits global
efforts to slow climate change. This prediction,
sadly, was wrong, as evidenced by Trump's electoral victory.
- Anti-Muslim sentiments will continue to
escalate, exacerbated by both the threats posed by ISIS and non-state
terror groups as well as an unstoppable flood of immigrants out of the
Middle East. This prediction was correct.
- Support for decriminalizing marijuana
will continue to build as will support for reducing/eliminating mandatory
sentences for many drug related offenses. This
prediction was also correct.
- Cultural conflict will continue in the
US over same sex marriage and abortion. Nevertheless, same sex marriage
will find increasing acceptance. Abortion, however, will remain an
acrimonious, polarizing issue that further entangles Planned Parenthood
and other providers. This prediction was correct.
- Although Congress will fail in renewed
attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, healthcare costs will
continue to grow faster than the general rate of inflation as will anger
over the excessive cost of prescription drugs and awareness of the
dysfunctionality of the US approach to healthcare. This prediction was correct, although repeal of the
Affordable Care Act seems certain in 2017.
My predictions for 2017 will appear in my next Ethical Musings post.
In the meantime, best wishes for a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2017!
Comments