Predictions for 2020
Last year, I made several predictions for 2019. Below, red annotations report the accuracy of each prediction.
·
US stock markets will fall
more than 20% from their 2018 highs. This prediction
was off by about 45% - the markets rose rather than fell.
·
President Trump’s enjoyment
of chaos, erratic behavior, dishonesty, and narcissism will continue to
destabilize US and world politics. Accurate.
·
The loyalty of President
Trump’s base will erode and his base diminish in size. Many
of Trump’s policies harmed his base, as I forecast, but this did not erode the
loyalty of his base.
·
President Trump’s legal
problems will escalate. The U.S. House of Representatives
impeached Trump; he now awaits a Senate trial.
·
Brexit will happen. The Conservatives did call an election. They scored an
unexpected, overwhelming victory. Brexit is now inevitable.
·
The US will tighten border
security, especially with Mexico, but will not build a border wall along the
southern border. Accurate.
·
Trump, a man of few bedrock
convictions, will find shifting toward the political center tempting as a means
to achieve legislative results. This partially
occurred, e.g., with respect to family leave.
·
Global warming will
increase. Accurate.
·
No major war will erupt.
Military tensions between China and its Pacific neighbors will increase. Minor
wars will continue on all continents except Antarctica and Australia. Accurate.
·
The US opioid epidemic will
continue uninterrupted. Opioid related deaths will increase. Accurate. I did not foresee the shift toward increased methamphetamine
use.
·
US unemployment will
gradually begin to increase as the decade long economic expansion slows and
then begins to contract. Accurate.
·
There will not be any major
news stories regarding religion. The Roman Catholic Church, however, will
continue to deal with its clergy sex abuse scandal. Accurate.
Here are some of my predictions for 2020:
·
The Senate will fail to
convict Trump; he will finish his first term in office.
·
The presidential election
will be hard fought. Trump’s base will remain loyal. The Democrats, at this
time, lack a charismatic candidate who can easily defeat Trump. The race will
turn on a handful of battleground states including Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin and Florida. The outcome of the election will hinge on events that occur
between now and November.
·
Democrats will hold on to a
majority in the U.S. House of Representatives; Republicans will continue to
control the Senate in 2021.
·
The stock market’s decade
long bull market will end.
·
No real improvement in U.S.
relations with Iran and North Korea will occur.
·
U.S. military troops will
remain deployed across the Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan).
·
Global warming will happen
faster than science has predicted. Global efforts to reverse climate change
will remain chaotic and ineffectual. Consequently, the number of extreme weather
events will increase.
·
Domestic terrorism and hate
crimes will increase in Europe and the U.S.
·
Pope Francis will persevere
in his efforts to liberalize the Roman Catholic Church. The United Methodist
Church will split over the issue of full inclusion of non-heterosexuals.
·
The number of homeless
persons in Hawaii will increase, a small indicator of growing economic
inequality in the U.S.
·
Laws limiting a woman’s
access to abortion will continue to proliferate among the states.
·
Laws decriminalizing or legalizing
recreational marijuana use will also continue to spread across the states.
·
Federated Department
Stores, including their Macy’s flagship chain, will move closer to becoming the
next Sears as ecommerce continues to marginalize traditional retailing and stores.
·
The U.S. judiciary will
apply the brakes to reliance on “alternative facts” and government policies
that ignore scientific evidence.
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